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There’s been talk about a recession for quite a while now. But the economy has been remarkably resilient. Why? One reason is employment and wages have stayed strong. Let’s look at the latest information on each one and why both are good news if you’re thinking about selling your house.
Instead of facing the job losses typical of any recession, the economy has been growing and adding jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 187,000 jobs were created in July, which is up from the 185,000 created in June. That means more people are finding work. In fact, so many jobs are being added that the unemployment rate is far lower than the long-term average of 5.7% (see graph below):
A low unemployment rate means that most people who want to work are finding jobs. When people have jobs, they have steady incomes – and that can help set them up to consider homeownership.
And data also shows hourly earnings have been going up pretty steadily over the past few years (see graph below):
When wages rise, people have more money that they could save or use toward buying a home. This increase in income helps offset some of the affordability challenges in the housing market today. Affordability depends on three main factors: wages, home prices, and mortgage rates. With higher home prices and mortgage rates right now, Builder Online summarizes how growing wages can help:
“The housing market has been a beneficiary of the strong economy and labor market. Many of those employed have saved money over the past few years and used those funds toward a down payment on a home.”
If you’re thinking about selling your house, a strong job market, growing wages, and the resulting buyer demand is fantastic news. It means there’s a larger pool of potential buyers out there who are in a position to pursue their dreams of homeownership.
With more jobs and rising wages creating eager buyers, there’s a lot going in your favor. Reach out to a local real estate agent so you have someone who can guide you through the process of selling your house, from setting the right price to getting your home ready to show.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is set to release its most recent Existing Home Sales (EHS) report tomorrow. This monthly release provides information on the volume of sales and price trends for homes that have previously been owned. In the upcoming release, it’ll likely say home prices are down. This may seem a bit confusing, especially if you’ve been following along and reading the blogs saying home prices have hit the bottom and have since rebounded.
So, why would this say home prices are falling when so many other price reports say they’re going back up? It all depends on the methodology of each one. NAR reports on the median home sales price, while some other sources use repeat sales prices. Here’s how those approaches differ.
The Center for Real Estate Studies at Wichita State University explains median sales prices like this:
“The median sale price measures the ‘middle’ price of homes that sold, meaning that half of the homes sold for a higher price and half sold for less . . . For example, if more lower-priced homes have sold recently, the median sale price would decline (because the “middle” home is now a lower-priced home), even if the value of each individual home is rising.”
Investopedia helps define what a repeat sales approach means:
“Repeat-sales methods calculate changes in home prices based on sales of the same property, thereby avoiding the problem of trying to account for price differences in homes with varying characteristics.”
As the quotes above say, the approaches can tell different stories. That’s why median home sales price data (like EHS) may say prices are down, even though the vast majority of the repeat sales reports show prices are appreciating again.
Bill McBride, Author of the Calculated Risk blog, sums the difference up like this:
“Median prices are distorted by the mix and repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices.”
To drive this point home, here’s a simple explanation of median value (see visual below). Let’s say you have three coins in your pocket, and you decide to line them up according to their value from low to high. If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median value (the middle one) is 10 cents. If you have two nickels and one dime, the median value is now five cents.
In both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth 10 cents. The value of each coin didn’t change.
That’s why using the median home sales price as a gauge of what’s happening with home values may be confusing right now. Most buyers look at home prices as a starting point to determine if they match their budgets. But most people buy homes based on the monthly mortgage payment they can afford, not just the price of the house. When mortgage rates are higher, you may have to buy a less expensive home to keep your monthly housing expense affordable.
That’s why a greater number of ‘less-expensive’ houses are selling right now – and that’s causing the median home sales price to decline. But that doesn’t mean any single house lost value.
When you see the stories in the media that prices are falling later this week, remember the coins. Just because the median home sales price changes, it doesn’t mean home prices are falling. What it means is the mix of homes being sold is being impacted by affordability and current mortgage rates.
For a more in-depth understanding of home price trends and reports, reach out to a local real estate professional.
In today’s housing market, there are two main affordability challenges impacting buyers: mortgage rates that are higher than they’ve been the past couple of years, and rising home prices caused by low inventory. To overcome those challenges, many people are working with their agents to find less expensive homes. And with newly built homes making up a historically large percentage of the total available inventory today, that search often includes brand new homes.
The graph below uses the latest information from the Census to show, in June, more of the newly built home sales in this country were in lower price ranges than in 2022:
Last year, only 58% of newly built home sales were less than $500,000. This June, that number was up to 65%. This means more people are buying less expensive newly built homes right now while affordability remains a challenge.
Builders have picked up on this trend and are reacting accordingly. George Ratiu, Chief Economist at Keeping Current Matters, explains:
“Builders are also responding to this shift by bringing slightly smaller homes to market in an effort to meet lower price points . . .”
New data from the Census further confirms this pattern – it shows the median sales price of newly built homes has dipped down in recent months (see graph below):
And as Mikaela Arroyo, Director of the New Home Trends Institute at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, says, the builders who are most responsive to this trend are forming pathways to homeownership:
“. . . it is creating opportunities for people to be able to afford an entry-level home in an area. . . . if you get that size down, that automatically will make it a more affordable home. The [builders] that are decreasing [size] the most are probably the ones that try to build more of an affordable product.”
Builders producing smaller, less expensive newly built homes give you more affordable options at a time when that’s really needed. If you’re hoping to buy a home soon, partner with a local real estate agent to find out what’s available in your area. An agent can help you look at newly built homes or ones under construction nearby.
If you’re having a hard time finding a home you like in your budget, connect with a real estate professional. You need an agent who knows all about the latest inventory in your area, including homes still under construction or just built. That way you have an expert on your side who can provide information on builder reputations, builder contracts and negotiations, and more to help you with the homebuying process.
The rising cost of just about everything from groceries to gas right now is leading to speculation that more people won’t be able to afford their mortgage payments. And that’s creating concern that a lot of foreclosures are on the horizon. While it’s true that foreclosure filings have gone up a bit compared to last year, experts say a flood of foreclosures isn’t coming.
Take it from Bill McBride of Calculated Risk. McBride is an expert on the housing market, and after closely following the data and market environment leading up to the crash, he was able to see the foreclosures coming in 2008. With the same careful eye and analysis, he has a different take on what’s ahead in the current market:
“There will not be a foreclosure crisis this time.”
Let’s look at why another flood is so unlikely.
One of the main reasons there were so many foreclosures during the last housing crash was because relaxed lending standards made it easy for people to take out mortgages, even if they couldn’t show that they’d be able to pay them back. At that time, lenders weren’t being very strict when assessing applicant credit scores, income levels, employment status, and debt-to-income ratio.
But now, lending standards have tightened, leading to more qualified buyers who can afford to make their mortgage payments. And data from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae shows the number of homeowners who are seriously behind on their mortgage payments is declining (see graph below):
Molly Boese, Principal Economist at CoreLogic, explains just how few homeowners are struggling to make their mortgage payments:
“May’s overall mortgage delinquency rate matched the all-time low, and serious delinquencies followed suit. Furthermore, the rate of mortgages that were six months or more past due, a measure that ballooned in 2021, has receded to a level last observed in March 2020.”
Before there can be a significant rise in foreclosures, the number of people who can’t make their mortgage payments would need to rise. Since so many buyers are making their payments today, a wave of foreclosures isn’t likely.
If you’re worried about a potential flood of foreclosures, know there’s nothing in the data today to suggest that’ll happen. In fact, qualified buyers are making their mortgage payments at a very high rate.
If you’re a homeowner, you might be torn on whether or not to sell your house right now. Maybe that’s because you don’t want to take on a higher mortgage rate on your next home. If that’s your biggest hurdle, understanding your equity may be exactly what you need to help you feel more comfortable making your move.
Equity is the current value of your home minus what you owe on the loan. And recently, that equity has been growing far faster than you may expect.
Over the last few years, home prices rose dramatically, and that gave your equity a big boost very quickly. While the market has started to normalize, there’s still an imbalance between the number of homes available for sale and the number of buyers looking to make a purchase. And it’s because homes are in such high demand that prices are back on the rise today. Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM, a property data provider, explains:
“Equity levels were high even during the recent downturn, and now they are going back up and better than ever.”
With today’s affordability challenges, that equity can be a game changer when you move. Here’s why. Based on data from ATTOM and the Census, nearly two-thirds (68.7%) of homeowners have either paid off their mortgages or have at least 50% equity (see chart below):
That means roughly 70% have a tremendous amount of equity right now.
Once you sell your house, you can use your equity to help with your next purchase. It could be some (if not all) of what you’ll need for your next down payment. It may even be enough to allow you to put a considerably larger down payment on your next home, so you don’t have to finance quite as much. And, if you’ve been in your current house for years, you may have even built up enough equity to pay in all cash. If that’s true for you, you’d be able to avoid borrowing altogether, so you wouldn’t have to worry about today’s mortgage rates.
The best way to learn how much you have is to reach out to a trusted real estate agent for a Professional Equity Assessment Report (PEAR).
If you’re planning to make a move, the equity you’ve gained can make a big impact. To find out just how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase, connect with a trusted real estate advisor.
Some homeowners have been waiting for months to put their house on the market because they don’t think people are buying homes right now. If that’s you, know that even though the housing market has slowed compared to the frenzy of a couple of years ago, it isn’t at a standstill. Contrary to what you may believe, buyers are still active and plenty of homes are selling right now.
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), based on the pace of sales right now, just over 4 million homes will sell this year. With some simple math, let’s break down what that really means for you:
So, on average, about 11,000 homes sell each day in this country.
A real estate expert can give you more information about how many houses are being sold in your neighborhood, the amazing advantages that sellers are experiencing right now, and the most important things buyers are searching for in your area. Together you’ll use this knowledge to shape how you market your house based on local trends.
If you’ve been waiting to sell because you don’t think there are buyers out there, know today’s market is active. Every day you wait, around 11,000 other homeowners are selling. In the time it took you to read this, eight homes sold. When you’re ready to sell too, connect with a local real estate agent.
Wondering if it still makes sense to sell your house right now? The short answer is, yes. Especially if you consider how few homes there are for sale today.
You may have heard inventory is low right now, but you may not fully realize just how low or why that’s a perk when you go to sell your house. This graph from Calculated Risk can help put that into perspective:
As the graph shows, while housing inventory did grow slightly week-over-week (shown in the blue bar), overall supply is still low (shown in the red bars). Compared to the same week last year, supply is down roughly 10% – and it was already considered low at that time. But, if you look further back, you’ll see inventory is down even more significantly.
To gauge just how far off from normal today’s inventory is, let’s compare right now to 2019 (the last normal year in the market). When you compare the same week this year with the matching week in 2019, supply is about 50% lower. That means there are half the homes for sale now than there’d usually be.
The key takeaway? We’re still nowhere near what’s considered a balanced market. There’s plenty of demand for your house because there just aren’t enough homes to go around. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:
“There are simply not enough homes for sale. The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.”
So, if you want to list your house, know that there’s only about half the inventory there’d usually be in a more normal year. That means your house will be in the spotlight if you sell now and you may see multiple offers and a fast home sale.
With the number of homes for sale roughly half of what there’d usually be in a more normal year, you can rest assured there’s demand for your house. If you want to sell, connect with a local real estate agent now so your house can shine above the rest while inventory is so low.
